Monday, December 15, 2014

Ukraine/Russia Recap Pt. 2

Continuing with Part 1, here are the next two events that have highlighted the situation between Ukraine and Russia for 2014.

3. Malaysia Airlines Flight 17

At 13:20 UTC on July 17, 2014, civilian flight MH17 crashed in the contested Donetsk province of Ukraine. Not long after the crash, a post on VKontakte (a Russian social media site) by Dontesk pro-Russian separatist leader Igor Girkin talks of shooting down a Ukrainian AN-26 cargo plane in the province. However, Ukraine forces intercepted audio that identified the wreckage as a civilian plane. The pro-Russian separatists had used a Russian surface-to-air missile system three days earlier to shoot down a AN-26, and initially believed to have done the same on July 17. The crash investigation is ongoing, but there is still debate on how the forces in Donetsk acquired the missile system. Some, including German intelligence, believe that separatists captured the system from a nearby Ukrainian military base. Others insist that Russia directly supplied the separatists with the missile system.

BUK surface-to-air missile system (courtesy Reuters)

4. Significant increase in Russian military activity

Throughout the year, Russia has maneuvered its forces near its Western border with Ukraine. However, just like the tide, those forces have been removed numerous times as well. In instances such as the Russian aid convoy controversy, Russian military forces have been standing by for immediate action. These buildups provide excellent protection for pro-Russian separatists when receiving supplies, whether it be military or humanitarian, from Russia.

However, Russia's military activity has not been limited to Ukraine. NATO aircraft have encountered Russian aircraft over 400 times this year; this does not include more recent sightings this month. Many NATO allies are worried that these encounters are becoming too numerous and could endanger civilian lives, as exemplified by a near-collision on December 13.

A Russian Su-34 intercepted by by Dutch F-16s (image from video)

Friday, December 12, 2014

Ukraine/Russia Recap Pt. 1

With 2014 coming to a close, it is important to look back on some of the major security events that made headlines. The global fight against Islamic extremism (particularly in Iraq and Syria) has been a critical focus point for six months, Israel and the Gaza Strip reengaged, but who could forget the conflict in Ukraine?

In response to then-Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych's failure to sign the long awaited economic agreement with the European Union, protests broke out in Kiev at the end of 2013. By February 22, 2014, Yanukovych had fled the country and it appeared Ukraine could finally move forward. Less than a week later, Russian forces entered Crimea. Here are the four most significant events of conflict in 2014.

1. Russia invades Crimea while denying that they are invading Crimea.
Russian troops without insignia (courtesy Twitter account ST Foreign Desk)
Undoubtedly, pictures of the "green uniformed men in Crimea" were the highlight of the Crimean crisis back in March of this year. Without official insignia, early reports claimed these men were local militiamen seeking independence from Ukraine. However, Russia later admitted these men were in fact Russian troops; even though there was substantial evidence proving they were Russian to begin with. The giveaway was the military vehicles used during the invasion; most vehicles had Russian license plates.

2. Lugansk and Donetsk declare independence from Ukraine

After Crimea, many feared Eastern Ukraine as Russia's next invasion point due to troops amassing on the border. However, both Ukrainian territories declared independence via referendum on May 11 and May 12, respectively. Much like Crimea, Lugansk and Donetsk share a large population of ethnic Russians that disagreed with the protest outcome in Kiev. In response to attacks on government buildings by Pro-Russian separatists, Ukraine launched a military campaign into both territories. As of last month, the UN estimates over 4,000 people have died in conflict.

In addition to the ongoing conflict, Russia has continued to deny that it is supplying weapons and vehicles to Lugansk and Donetsk; instead insisting that Pro-Russian separatists captured all of their equipment from former Ukrainian military bases in the region. Again, there are numerous photos and videos that say otherwise.
Photographic evidence of Russian-supplied tanks (courtesy Twitter UK in Ukraine)



Monday, October 6, 2014

Kurdish Resistance of IS: Fulfilling the Anti-Armor Combat Role

Kobane, a Syrian town resting a long the border of Turkey, has come under siege in recent weeks from IS militants. One of the many complaints expressed from resistance forces was the failure to halt advancing IS tanks and artillery. There are a few potential reasons for this situation.

1. Limited Air Support. Even though there have been hundreds of airstrikes against IS, there have been relatively few against the Syrian-Turkish border in recent days. UAVs have been spotted near Kobane, but they have been unarmed and are likely carrying out reconnaissance.

UAV filmed near Kobane (YouTube, Agency Depths)

2. Limited Armor-Piercing Capability on the Ground. This video shows a YPG militia member firing an RPG-7 variant at an approaching IS tank in Kobane. He fails to hit the intended target and does not reengage. Kobane is now surrounded by IS and ammunition such as anti-armor warheads may be hard to come by; especially since there is no Kurdish supply line running into Kobane.

However, only a week earlier, this video shows YPG fighters defending Kobane with a variety of weapons. They are shown engaging IS infantry with RPGs, an anti-materiel rifle, and an electronic anti-tank system (MANPATS). The video fails to show whether or not the YPG were attacking armored targets, but it highlights that Kurdish resistance is able to obtain anti-armor weapons.

YPG member firing a MANPATS (YouTube, YPG in Syria)
Airstrikes are in high demand for their effectiveness against armored targets. They have proven effective against both mobile and stationary armored targets. However, airstrikes are not as immediate as ground-level resistance against tanks and other vehicles. Kurdish forces have shown that they are equipped with a substantial arsenal to combat armor. An emphasis may need to be placed on creating holes in the IS defense to allow for Kurdish forces to resupply. Synergy between air support and ground forces will be required to neutralize IS armor.

Friday, August 22, 2014

Islamic State, What's Next?

US CENTCOM has reported that it has conducted 93 airstrikes against IS since beginning combat operations on August 8. US air support has helped Kurdish and Iraqi forces take back the Mosul dam from IS militants; a critical victory for Northern Iraq.

Removing the Daash Flag, Originally posted on Twitter

However, IS made ground on the social media battlefield after uploading the execution of American journalist James Foley. As many have noted, social media has been a critical tool for the IS terror campaign. Consequently, many online users have called for the removal of IS accounts on sites such as Twitter and Facebook. Many accounts have been removed on the grounds of violating site rules (i.e. posting disturbing images). These actions have neither stopped IS supporters from making new accounts, nor have they prevented IS from using other social media platforms.

It appears that the momentum following the June blitzkrieg made by IS has significantly slowed after the US began airstrikes. So what happens next for IS?

In order to maintain their current territory in both Syria and Iraq, they must continue to commit a considerable number of resources to waging conventional warfare. Fortunately for IS, they have no shortage of financial resources. If foreign military assistance and Iraqi security forces can continue to apply pressure, IS money may amount to little in terms of defending territory. At that point, IS may shift priorities and focus solely on conducting guerrilla warfare and hallmark terrorist activities. For example, IS has already been responsible for car bombings, suicide bombings, kidnappings/executions, and roadside IEDs. 

Should IS reach that point, the most concerning possibility would be an attempt by IS to build a strong global network similar to Al-Qaeda. IS has dominated the social media landscape, making it very easy to reach out to supporters and potential recruits. However, IS succeeded in distancing itself from other terrorist organizations due to a level of brutality similar to that of a Mexican drug cartel. It may have good financial connections, but IS may need to rediscover common ground if they plan to achieve a truly global reach on par with organizations such as Al-Qaeda. 

It is likely that the next challenge for defeating IS will be reclaiming the major cities of Mosul and Raqqa; locations in which IS strictly enforce sharia law and recruit members. Even with air support, the fight for these cities will not be easy. These locations are IS strong points and will be necessary for reclaiming both Syria and Iraq. 


Friday, August 8, 2014

Enter the Airstrikes

Two months have past since the United States announced the potential use of airstrikes in Iraq. This morning, Rear Admiral Jack Kirby tweeted that the US had finally utilized airstrikes against the Islamic State (IS) in Northern Iraq.

The IS campaign in Iraq began making headlines back in June, and many following the conflict have questioned why the US waited until now to provide direct combat assistance. There are several potential reasons for this.

1. Regional Politics
One of the many reasons IS targeted Iraq was because its Shia-majority government failed to include Sunnis in high government positions (hence IS being aided by Sunni tribes). There have been numerous calls from nationals and foreign powers alike for the Iraqi government to reform, and it has yet to do so. The Kurdish Autonomous Region in Northern Iraq has been considered by many analysts to be much more stable than the government in Baghdad. They have also been more successful in defending their territory from IS than the rest of the Iraqi security forces. This may have made the Kurdish region a more suitable candidate for direct combat assistance.

2. IS Organization
My earlier blog posts discussed the potential outcomes of IS incorporating captured weapons and vehicles into their Iraq offensive. IS has since followed through and is using its newly acquired arsenal to great effect. Even Rear Admiral Kirby's tweet specifically mentions IS artillery as the main target for the first airstrike. Iraqi security forces have not only suffered physical losses to the organized IS, but also morale. Even Kurdish Peshmerga forces, who were initially successful in their defense, have begun to experience setbacks. IS in Iraq is no longer the army of trucks and tribal fighters witnessed two months ago.

3. Humanitarian Crisis
In face of the IS onslaught, thousands have fled Iraq in search of safe haven. However, many religious communities in the North, such as the Yazidi, have been specifically targeted by IS. Their escape from IS has left them without sufficient food, water, and medicine. The US, and now the the UK, have promised to airdrop supplies to these affected communities. IS has been open of its brutal plans to eliminate non-Sunnis, thus bringing an element of genocide to the conflict.

Even though the US mentioned its personnel in Erbil were at risk, it has had advisers in Iraq since June. Other factors were likely included in the decision to airstrike IS besides the potential threat to US military personnel.  

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Latin America's Relationship with Private Security

It has been over a month since my last post. During that time, I took a trip to South America for a political science conference and rediscovered a topic I am quite familiar with; the growing use of private security companies (PSCs).

In 2013, I was a university senior and one of my courses covered security issues in Mexico. Our class retraced Mexico's modern history and the beginnings of drug-related violence in the region. As part of the class, each student was assigned a term paper with a topic of our choosing. The military/police vs. the cartel topic was a popular choice, but I decided to take a different angle; where did private security fit into the conflict?

My first order of business was defining private security. In North America, private security is often associated with unarmed guards with flashlights that patrol shopping malls and other areas. This is far from the case in Central and South America, where guards are often outfitted with firearms and protective armor (as I saw last month in numerous locations). As a result of my research, I decided to define private security as any security-related service being performed outside of the traditional police and military institutions.

*PSCs have many important roles in today's security apparatus and my analysis only focused on the growing complications relating to the use of armed personnel in combating organized crime*

After about a month's worth of research, I discovered that there are thousands of PSCs operating in the hemisphere; some of them unregistered. In many cities, these companies have decreased crime rates. For example, Ciudad Juarez, once the most violent city in the world, experienced a 60 percent drop in homicides between 2011 and 2012. This drop is significant considering there were 3,100 drug-related homicides in Juarez in 2010. Over the course of several years, roughly 177 PSCs were hired in Ciudad Juarez for protection services. This added thousands of armed guards on the streets, so much so that they outnumbered the police almost 9 to 1.

However, there is a serious blind spot in these statistics. A majority of the PSCs are hired to patrol key business centers in the city. Criminal activity may have lessened in these areas, but drug-related executions, extortion, and kidnappings occur frequently in the impoverished parts of the city. Furthermore, the homicide drop does not consider the likely number of unreported killings.

While visiting some distant ruins in Peru, I noticed that the nearby town was patrolled not by police officers, but by PSC personnel. These guards were equipped with body armor, handguns, handcuffs, and steel batons. At first I thought they were police, but their clothing was marked SS (Security Services).  I observed similar circumstances in busier city centers. Though I saw police officers, they were often directing traffic instead of patrolling the streets.

 However, the most interesting case I found was on my return trip. Before I could wait at my gate in San Salvador (I had already cleared customs and security in Lima), all passengers had to pass an additional security checkpoint. Instead of airport security, or even the police for that matter, my carry-on luggage was searched for contraband by a PSC called Global Legions. Usually, transportation security is performed by government employees (police, military, TSA, etc.).

My paper acknowledged the popularity of PSCs providing armed personnel, but recognized cases of abuse and corruption. Some companies even cover for criminal activity. Of course, such activity is not representative of the majority of PSCs, but accountability is important for clients; regardless of what service is provided.


Friday, June 27, 2014

Baghdad, the US, and the Awkward Alliance

Multiple news sources have been reporting that US drones were sighted in the skies over Baghdad and US officials stated that their current use is only to protect US military advisers should they come under fire. Security continues to tighten in the city as ISIS and Sunni militants have set up positions in nearby areas surrounding Baghdad. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) recently posted an extremely informative map to its Twitter page showing the numerous areas occupied by ISIS, as well as possible military staging sites.
ISW image highlighting militant activity around Baghdad (click to enlarge)
 The fighting has not yet reached the interior of Baghdad, but militants are positioned less than an hour away. This upcoming battle will either show the resolve of the Iraqi security forces or further weaken them. The Iraqi government is not alone in combating ISIS.  Assad's regime in Syria, Iran, Shi'a militias, the United States, and even Hezbollah have all pledged to support the Iraqi government. Obviously, this alliance seems a bit awkward from a US perspective. Whereas the other parties have promised direct combat support against ISIS, the US has withheld the use of force so far (though this may quickly change if anything bad happens to their current advisers on the ground). US and Iran relations have a strained history. In addition, the US has also been supplying weapons to moderate Syrian rebels fighting against Assad since 2013. Last but not least, the US classifies Hezbollah as a terrorist organization.

The position of the US in this uneasy alliance-of-sorts will likely spark much debate.

 In my previous post, I talked a lot about artillery and its potential use by the militants. I would like to add that even though they may not have received formal training beforehand, ISIS and associates can still use indirect fire for their campaign.  It's hard to accurately hit targets without proper artillery training, but if the militants have enough ammunition it may not matter.  M198 artillery was spotted again yesterday in Mosul (via Twitter), but it is unclear if they are planning to incorporate it against Baghdad.  Artillery barrages may not always be precise, but they can certainly damage morale. Attacking morale has been a strong point for ISIS.

More armored vehicles in addition to towed artillery
Mosul is only 5 hours north of Baghdad. Given that ISIS controls most of the area between the two cities, it is quite possible that convoys of captured vehicles are already in position outside Baghdad. If the Iraqi Armed Forces can hold together and communicate effectively, they might stand a chance; especially if they can maximize damage on key targets with air support.

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

ISIS Military Capabilities in Iraq: An Analysis

Over the course of the past month, social media coverage on the events in Iraq have increased significantly.  Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube have become abundant with primary source material as both sides of the conflict post videos, pictures, and eyewitness testimonies.  This media has been a critical source for mass media coverage across the globe.  For governments and military forces, social media aids open source intelligence efforts (OSINT) in collecting significant information such as geography and cultural perspectives.

ISIS has made substantial territorial gains in Iraq while maintaining a heavy presence on social media websites.  With every proclaimed victory over a particular city or region, new images and videos from people involved in the conflict flood the internet.  Sites such as Twitter and Facebook have been saturated with images of militants showing off equipment and vehicles captured from the Iraqi Army.  Most recently in Mosul, the second largest city in Iraq, ISIS showcased a military review.  

Captured Iraqi BTR-80 armored personnel carrier (APC)

Former US M198 Howitzer being towed by ISIS 
These images (posted today on Twitter), along with many others, give insight as to ISIS's potential military capabilities.  In addition to APCs and artillery pieces, ISIS has boasted the capturing of Iraqi T-55 tanks as seen in a video less than 2 weeks ago.  However, various news sources have reported that ISIS is moving much of the captured equipment back to Syria.  

There are two potential reasons for this.

First, the ISIS main headquarters and training camps are located in Syria, where ISIS has gained most of it's fighting experience.  Though there are thousands of militants in Iraq, most have little to no training on such equipment.  ISIS fighters in Syria have been using captured tanks and artillery for quite some time and it's likely the equipment captured in Iraq will be used in Syria for both direct combat and training exercises.  Removing this equipment also prevents Iraqi forces from potentially recapturing them.

Secondly, ISIS strategy in Iraq has been effective without the use of heavy weapons.  With assistance from various Sunni tribal fighters and large convoys of cars and trucks, ISIS has the advantage of having an extremely large, yet mobile infantry.  This often results in ambushes from all sides for Iraqi security forces.  Such attacks have greatly damaged morale for the Iraqi forces.

The capturing of such equipment may seem disheartening, but reality sets in when looking at military records.  For example, the 2012 edition of The Military Balance by the International Institute for Strategic Studies noted that the Iraqi Army had only 120 pieces of M198 artillery.  ISIS does not have every artillery piece.  Furthermore, field artillery like the M198 is essentially obsolete in the age of air strikes and satellite coordinates.  ISIS would have to train teams of militants in the use of map coordinates and scouting to achieve even a small margin of accuracy with field artillery.  

As for the tanks and captured aircraft, the training required is even more substantial.  However, it is possible that trained reinforcements from Syria, equipped with tanks and artillery, could move into Iraq to support fellow insurgents since the Iraq/Syria border is largely unprotected.

Again, this analysis is based purely on information gathered from open sources.  With US military advisers now in Iraq, social media may reveal developments regarding the effectiveness of US strategy for Iraqi security forces.

Friday, June 20, 2014

Baiji is Burning

Last night, a video taken in Tal Afar, where heavy fighting over the airport has occurred, was uploaded to YouTube.  It further shows what a majority of Iraqi security forces are up against in terms of weaponry.


Another video most likely taken from a phone (based on the image quality), it shows several dead ISIS militants (based on the arm bands and nearby flags) lying near a stash of weapons.  You can clearly see mortar shells, improvised explosives in water bottles, and a heavy machine gun that was originally mounted to a truck.  However, I must admit that I am still trying to figure out what all circular objects are.  More explosives?

Mortar shells and water bottle explosives (video image)
                                                
Dismounted heavy machine gun in the back as well as a mortar
                                       

According to BBC News, the airport in Tal Afar is mostly under militant control and the fight for the Baiji oil refinery rages on.  Meanwhile, recent sources on Twitter have reported that the refinery fire has increased due to heavy shelling.

Recent image of the fire at night from a nearby town (video here)  
Yesterday, the US officially announced it would be sending military advisers to Iraq.  There is still no information regarding possible air strikes other than that ISIS in Syria may be targeted as well.



    

Thursday, June 19, 2014

Iraq Part 3: Battle for Baiji

This morning, the New York Times published an article stating that "that Sunni militants had retreated from a major refinery in Baiji." (Article Here)

This information, coming from Iraqi government officials as stated in the article, is the latest development on the fighting between ISIS and the Iraqi security forces.  From a strategic standpoint, the Baiji oil refinery, the largest in Iraq, is a critical resource for whoever controls it.  The fighting has appeared to have decreased in the last 12 hours.  Yesterday, this video was uploaded via YouTube.  The title is translated roughly as "Daash (a.k.a. ISIS) review in Baiji" and shows lines of vehicles packed full of armed insurgents presumably heading towards the refinery.  Though only lasting a little over three minutes, the video shows what equipment the average ISIS militant has to work with


                                        Insurgent vehicle equipped with an anti-aircraft gun (still image from video)


Armed with usually nothing more than the standard AK rifle and the occasional heavy machine gun, the Iraqi T-55 tanks and other armored vehicles captured by insurgents last week have made no appearance in Baiji as of yet.  ISIS propaganda videos (watch at your own risk) show insurgents wearing body armor and night vision goggles, but it can be assumed that these items are being used in the smallest of margins at best.

It is likely that the battle for Baiji is not yet over given the steady traffic of militants arriving to the area in the past 24 hours.  The US has still not made a final decision regarding air strikes.   

Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Iraq Part 2

At lot has happened in the short amount of time since my last post.  ISIS and it's followers are getting closer to Baghdad as the Iraqi Army seeks to defend the capital and expel the militants.  Today, Iraq has asked the United States for air strikes against ISIS.  Air strikes are popular in that they can pinpoint damage on the target without having to use ground forces.  However, in this case, there are only two viable means of air strikes for the US based on available reports.  As of right now, the USS Truxtun (missile destroyer), USS Philippine Sea (missile cruiser), and the USS George H.W. Bush (aircraft carrier) are in position in the Persian Gulf (Source).

Obviously, air strikes via fighter jets launched from the USS George H.W. Bush seem likely, but fighter jets (in this case the F-18 Hornet) are expensive to replace and the pilot's life is at risk if enemy ground forces have managed to procure any effective means of air defense.  On board the USS Philippine Sea are Tomahawk cruise missiles.  These cruise missiles can travel hundreds of miles before reaching their intended target and they cost roughly $1,000,000 a unit versus $60,000,000 per F-18.  Coincidentally, Tomahawk missiles first made media headlines during Operation Desert Storm in 1991 when the coalition forces defeated Saddam Hussein's Iraqi army in Kuwait.  Should the US decide to assist Iraq with air strikes, it would make more sense if they opted to use cruise missiles initially.

                                     USS Philippine Sea. Image courtesy of the United States Navy

As of now, the US has still not made a decision regarding the use of air strikes in Northern Iraq.      

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

Regarding the Events in Iraq

Even though I follow the news on a regular basis, I was not anticipating the insurgency in Northern Iraq; even though the writing was on the wall for quite some time.  My background is in Latin America, but I am still embarrassed to admit that I knew little about what was happening in Northern Iraq until it hit major news sources last week.  Based on what I have read so far, the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) had been festering since the United States overthrew the Saddam regime in 2003.  However, ISIS hit the mainstream media once it began assisting the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in combating Al-Assad's regime.  What caused the most alarm for policy makers and viewers alike was the relationship between ISIS and Al-Qaeda.  Both call for jihad and have no issues with committing gross human rights violations in the process.  After the vetoes from both China and Russia on the UN Security Council on the use of peacekeepers in Syria, the US opted to send supplies to the FSA in 2013.  Many feared that these supplies would end up into the hands of ISIS and Al-Qaeda.

A year has passed.  ISIS is now the strongest force in Syria's rebel-held territories and has no issues fighting the FSA, it's initial ally, in asserting dominance over the region.  Al-Qaeda has even cut ties with ISIS.  As ISIS closes in on Baghdad, one thing is certain; ISIS never needed US supplies to accomplish it's goals.  From fierce fighting in Syria, ISIS gained access to armories on Syrian military bases and it's initial connection with Al-Qaeda kept a steady stream of combatants and arms to the region.  With it's successful operations in the Anbar region and the recent conquering of an Iraqi base in Tikrit (once a former US base), ISIS has been pillaging what it needs.  ISIS is not just another extremist organization, they are an experienced regional army that continues to grow in size and influence.  With Iraqi cities under siege and quickly falling, ISIS will continue to acquire the resources it needs to sustain; including financial resources.

                                           Image taken from BBC News, further citation in image

With talk of possible US airstrikes and Iranian military involvement, the issue continues to grow more complicated.