Baghdad, the US, and the Awkward Alliance

Multiple news sources have been reporting that US drones were sighted in the skies over Baghdad and US officials stated that their current use is only to protect US military advisers should they come under fire. Security continues to tighten in the city as ISIS and Sunni militants have set up positions in nearby areas surrounding Baghdad. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) recently posted an extremely informative map to its Twitter page showing the numerous areas occupied by ISIS, as well as possible military staging sites.

ISW image highlighting militant activity around Baghdad (click to enlarge)

 The fighting has not yet reached the interior of Baghdad, but militants are positioned less than an hour away. This upcoming battle will either show the resolve of the Iraqi security forces or further weaken them. The Iraqi government is not alone in combating ISIS.  Assad's regime in Syria, Iran, Shi'a militias, the United States, and even Hezbollah have all pledged to support the Iraqi government. Obviously, this alliance seems a bit awkward from a US perspective. Whereas the other parties have promised direct combat support against ISIS, the US has withheld the use of force so far (though this may quickly change if anything bad happens to their current advisers on the ground). US and Iran relations have a strained history. In addition, the US has also been supplying weapons to moderate Syrian rebels fighting against Assad since 2013. Last but not least, the US classifies Hezbollah as a terrorist organization.

The position of the US in this uneasy alliance-of-sorts will likely spark much debate.

 In my previous post, I talked a lot about artillery and its potential use by the militants. I would like to add that even though they may not have received formal training beforehand, ISIS and associates can still use indirect fire for their campaign.  It's hard to accurately hit targets without proper artillery training, but if the militants have enough ammunition it may not matter.  M198 artillery was spotted again yesterday in Mosul (via Twitter), but it is unclear if they are planning to incorporate it against Baghdad.  Artillery barrages may not always be precise, but they can certainly damage morale. Attacking morale has been a strong point for ISIS.

More armored vehicles in addition to towed artillery

Mosul is only 5 hours north of Baghdad. Given that ISIS controls most of the area between the two cities, it is quite possible that convoys of captured vehicles are already in position outside Baghdad. If the Iraqi Armed Forces can hold together and communicate effectively, they might stand a chance; especially if they can maximize damage on key targets with air support.

ISIS Military Capabilities in Iraq: An Analysis

Over the course of the past month, social media coverage on the events in Iraq have increased significantly.  Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube have become abundant with primary source material as both sides of the conflict post videos, pictures, and eyewitness testimonies.  This media has been a critical source for mass media coverage across the globe.  For governments and military forces, social media aids open source intelligence efforts (OSINT) in collecting significant information such as geography and cultural perspectives.

ISIS has made substantial territorial gains in Iraq while maintaining a heavy presence on social media websites.  With every proclaimed victory over a particular city or region, new images and videos from people involved in the conflict flood the internet.  Sites such as Twitter and Facebook have been saturated with images of militants showing off equipment and vehicles captured from the Iraqi Army.  Most recently in Mosul, the second largest city in Iraq, ISIS showcased a military review.  

Captured Iraqi BTR-80 armored personnel carrier (APC)

Former US M198 Howitzer being towed by ISIS 

These images (posted today on Twitter), along with many others, give insight as to ISIS's potential military capabilities.  In addition to APCs and artillery pieces, ISIS has boasted the capturing of Iraqi T-55 tanks as seen in a video less than 2 weeks ago.  However, various news sources have reported that ISIS is moving much of the captured equipment back to Syria.  

There are two potential reasons for this.

First, the ISIS main headquarters and training camps are located in Syria, where ISIS has gained most of it's fighting experience.  Though there are thousands of militants in Iraq, most have little to no training on such equipment.  ISIS fighters in Syria have been using captured tanks and artillery for quite some time and it's likely the equipment captured in Iraq will be used in Syria for both direct combat and training exercises.  Removing this equipment also prevents Iraqi forces from potentially recapturing them.

Secondly, ISIS strategy in Iraq has been effective without the use of heavy weapons.  With assistance from various Sunni tribal fighters and large convoys of cars and trucks, ISIS has the advantage of having an extremely large, yet mobile infantry.  This often results in ambushes from all sides for Iraqi security forces.  Such attacks have greatly damaged morale for the Iraqi forces.

The capturing of such equipment may seem disheartening, but reality sets in when looking at military records.  For example, the 2012 edition of The Military Balance by the International Institute for Strategic Studies noted that the Iraqi Army had only 120 pieces of M198 artillery.  ISIS does not have every artillery piece.  Furthermore, field artillery like the M198 is essentially obsolete in the age of air strikes and satellite coordinates.  ISIS would have to train teams of militants in the use of map coordinates and scouting to achieve even a small margin of accuracy with field artillery.  

As for the tanks and captured aircraft, the training required is even more substantial.  However, it is possible that trained reinforcements from Syria, equipped with tanks and artillery, could move into Iraq to support fellow insurgents since the Iraq/Syria border is largely unprotected.

Again, this analysis is based purely on information gathered from open sources.  With US military advisers now in Iraq, social media may reveal developments regarding the effectiveness of US strategy for Iraqi security forces.

Baiji is Burning

Last night, a video taken in Tal Afar, where heavy fighting over the airport has occurred, was uploaded to YouTube.  It further shows what a majority of Iraqi security forces are up against in terms of weaponry.

Video Here 

Another video most likely taken from a phone (based on the image quality), it shows several dead ISIS militants (based on the arm bands and nearby flags) lying near a stash of weapons.  You can clearly see mortar shells, improvised explosives in water bottles, and a heavy machine gun that was originally mounted to a truck.  However, I must admit that I am still trying to figure out what all circular objects are.  More explosives?

Mortar shells and water bottle explosives (video image)

                                                

Dismounted heavy machine gun in the back as well as a mortar

                                       

According to BBC News, the airport in Tal Afar is mostly under militant control and the fight for the Baiji oil refinery rages on.  Meanwhile, recent sources on Twitter have reported that the refinery fire has increased due to heavy shelling.

Recent image of the fire at night from a nearby town (video here)  

Yesterday, the US officially announced it would be sending military advisers to Iraq.  There is still no information regarding possible air strikes other than that ISIS in Syria may be targeted as well.

    

Iraq Part 3: Battle for Baiji

This morning, the New York Times published an article stating that "that Sunni militants had retreated from a major refinery in Baiji." (Article Here)

This information, coming from Iraqi government officials as stated in the article, is the latest development on the fighting between ISIS and the Iraqi security forces.  From a strategic standpoint, the Baiji oil refinery, the largest in Iraq, is a critical resource for whoever controls it.  The fighting has appeared to have decreased in the last 12 hours.  Yesterday, this video was uploaded via YouTube.  The title is translated roughly as "Daash (a.k.a. ISIS) review in Baiji" and shows lines of vehicles packed full of armed insurgents presumably heading towards the refinery.  Though only lasting a little over three minutes, the video shows what equipment the average ISIS militant has to work with

                                        Insurgent vehicle equipped with an anti-aircraft gun (still image from video)


Armed with usually nothing more than the standard AK rifle and the occasional heavy machine gun, the Iraqi T-55 tanks and other armored vehicles captured by insurgents last week have made no appearance in Baiji as of yet.  ISIS propaganda videos (watch at your own risk) show insurgents wearing body armor and night vision goggles, but it can be assumed that these items are being used in the smallest of margins at best.

It is likely that the battle for Baiji is not yet over given the steady traffic of militants arriving to the area in the past 24 hours.  The US has still not made a final decision regarding air strikes.   

Iraq Part 2

At lot has happened in the short amount of time since my last post.  ISIS and it's followers are getting closer to Baghdad as the Iraqi Army seeks to defend the capital and expel the militants.  Today, Iraq has asked the United States for air strikes against ISIS.  Air strikes are popular in that they can pinpoint damage on the target without having to use ground forces.  However, in this case, there are only two viable means of air strikes for the US based on available reports.  As of right now, the USS Truxtun (missile destroyer), USS Philippine Sea (missile cruiser), and the USS George H.W. Bush (aircraft carrier) are in position in the Persian Gulf (Source).

Obviously, air strikes via fighter jets launched from the USS George H.W. Bush seem likely, but fighter jets (in this case the F-18 Hornet) are expensive to replace and the pilot's life is at risk if enemy ground forces have managed to procure any effective means of air defense.  On board the USS Philippine Sea are Tomahawk cruise missiles.  These cruise missiles can travel hundreds of miles before reaching their intended target and they cost roughly $1,000,000 a unit versus $60,000,000 per F-18.  Coincidentally, Tomahawk missiles first made media headlines during Operation Desert Storm in 1991 when the coalition forces defeated Saddam Hussein's Iraqi army in Kuwait.  Should the US decide to assist Iraq with air strikes, it would make more sense if they opted to use cruise missiles initially.

                                     USS Philippine Sea. Image courtesy of the United States Navy

As of now, the US has still not made a decision regarding the use of air strikes in Northern Iraq.      

Regarding the Events in Iraq

Even though I follow the news on a regular basis, I was not anticipating the insurgency in Northern Iraq; even though the writing was on the wall for quite some time.  My background is in Latin America, but I am still embarrassed to admit that I knew little about what was happening in Northern Iraq until it hit major news sources last week.  Based on what I have read so far, the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) had been festering since the United States overthrew the Saddam regime in 2003.  However, ISIS hit the mainstream media once it began assisting the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in combating Al-Assad's regime.  What caused the most alarm for policy makers and viewers alike was the relationship between ISIS and Al-Qaeda.  Both call for jihad and have no issues with committing gross human rights violations in the process.  After the vetoes from both China and Russia on the UN Security Council on the use of peacekeepers in Syria, the US opted to send supplies to the FSA in 2013.  Many feared that these supplies would end up into the hands of ISIS and Al-Qaeda.

A year has passed.  ISIS is now the strongest force in Syria's rebel-held territories and has no issues fighting the FSA, it's initial ally, in asserting dominance over the region.  Al-Qaeda has even cut ties with ISIS.  As ISIS closes in on Baghdad, one thing is certain; ISIS never needed US supplies to accomplish it's goals.  From fierce fighting in Syria, ISIS gained access to armories on Syrian military bases and it's initial connection with Al-Qaeda kept a steady stream of combatants and arms to the region.  With it's successful operations in the Anbar region and the recent conquering of an Iraqi base in Tikrit (once a former US base), ISIS has been pillaging what it needs.  ISIS is not just another extremist organization, they are an experienced regional army that continues to grow in size and influence.  With Iraqi cities under siege and quickly falling, ISIS will continue to acquire the resources it needs to sustain; including financial resources.

                                           Image taken from BBC News, further citation in image

With talk of possible US airstrikes and Iranian military involvement, the issue continues to grow more complicated.