Islamic State, What's Next?

US CENTCOM has reported that it has conducted 93 airstrikes against IS since beginning combat operations on August 8. US air support has helped Kurdish and Iraqi forces take back the Mosul dam from IS militants; a critical victory for Northern Iraq.

Removing the Daash Flag, Originally posted on Twitter

However, IS made ground on the social media battlefield after uploading the execution of American journalist James Foley. As many have noted, social media has been a critical tool for the IS terror campaign. Consequently, many online users have called for the removal of IS accounts on sites such as Twitter and Facebook. Many accounts have been removed on the grounds of violating site rules (i.e. posting disturbing images). These actions have neither stopped IS supporters from making new accounts, nor have they prevented IS from using other social media platforms.

It appears that the momentum following the June blitzkrieg made by IS has significantly slowed after the US began airstrikes. So what happens next for IS?

In order to maintain their current territory in both Syria and Iraq, they must continue to commit a considerable number of resources to waging conventional warfare. Fortunately for IS, they have no shortage of financial resources. If foreign military assistance and Iraqi security forces can continue to apply pressure, IS money may amount to little in terms of defending territory. At that point, IS may shift priorities and focus solely on conducting guerrilla warfare and hallmark terrorist activities. For example, IS has already been responsible for car bombings, suicide bombings, kidnappings/executions, and roadside IEDs. 

Should IS reach that point, the most concerning possibility would be an attempt by IS to build a strong global network similar to Al-Qaeda. IS has dominated the social media landscape, making it very easy to reach out to supporters and potential recruits. However, IS succeeded in distancing itself from other terrorist organizations due to a level of brutality similar to that of a Mexican drug cartel. It may have good financial connections, but IS may need to rediscover common ground if they plan to achieve a truly global reach on par with organizations such as Al-Qaeda. 

It is likely that the next challenge for defeating IS will be reclaiming the major cities of Mosul and Raqqa; locations in which IS strictly enforce sharia law and recruit members. Even with air support, the fight for these cities will not be easy. These locations are IS strong points and will be necessary for reclaiming both Syria and Iraq. 

Enter the Airstrikes

Two months have past since the United States announced the potential use of airstrikes in Iraq. This morning, Rear Admiral Jack Kirby tweeted that the US had finally utilized airstrikes against the Islamic State (IS) in Northern Iraq.

The IS campaign in Iraq began making headlines back in June, and many following the conflict have questioned why the US waited until now to provide direct combat assistance. There are several potential reasons for this.

1. Regional Politics
One of the many reasons IS targeted Iraq was because its Shia-majority government failed to include Sunnis in high government positions (hence IS being aided by Sunni tribes). There have been numerous calls from nationals and foreign powers alike for the Iraqi government to reform, and it has yet to do so. The Kurdish Autonomous Region in Northern Iraq has been considered by many analysts to be much more stable than the government in Baghdad. They have also been more successful in defending their territory from IS than the rest of the Iraqi security forces. This may have made the Kurdish region a more suitable candidate for direct combat assistance.

2. IS Organization
My earlier blog posts discussed the potential outcomes of IS incorporating captured weapons and vehicles into their Iraq offensive. IS has since followed through and is using its newly acquired arsenal to great effect. Even Rear Admiral Kirby's tweet specifically mentions IS artillery as the main target for the first airstrike. Iraqi security forces have not only suffered physical losses to the organized IS, but also morale. Even Kurdish Peshmerga forces, who were initially successful in their defense, have begun to experience setbacks. IS in Iraq is no longer the army of trucks and tribal fighters witnessed two months ago.

3. Humanitarian Crisis
In face of the IS onslaught, thousands have fled Iraq in search of safe haven. However, many religious communities in the North, such as the Yazidi, have been specifically targeted by IS. Their escape from IS has left them without sufficient food, water, and medicine. The US, and now the the UK, have promised to airdrop supplies to these affected communities. IS has been open of its brutal plans to eliminate non-Sunnis, thus bringing an element of genocide to the conflict.

Even though the US mentioned its personnel in Erbil were at risk, it has had advisers in Iraq since June. Other factors were likely included in the decision to airstrike IS besides the potential threat to US military personnel.  

Latin America's Relationship with Private Security

It has been over a month since my last post. During that time, I took a trip to South America for a political science conference and rediscovered a topic I am quite familiar with; the growing use of private security companies (PSCs).

In 2013, I was a university senior and one of my courses covered security issues in Mexico. Our class retraced Mexico's modern history and the beginnings of drug-related violence in the region. As part of the class, each student was assigned a term paper with a topic of our choosing. The military/police vs. the cartel topic was a popular choice, but I decided to take a different angle; where did private security fit into the conflict?

My first order of business was defining private security. In North America, private security is often associated with unarmed guards with flashlights that patrol shopping malls and other areas. This is far from the case in Central and South America, where guards are often outfitted with firearms and protective armor (as I saw last month in numerous locations). As a result of my research, I decided to define private security as any security-related service being performed outside of the traditional police and military institutions.

*PSCs have many important roles in today's security apparatus and my analysis only focused on the growing complications relating to the use of armed personnel in combating organized crime*

After about a month's worth of research, I discovered that there are thousands of PSCs operating in the hemisphere; some of them unregistered. In many cities, these companies have decreased crime rates. For example, Ciudad Juarez, once the most violent city in the world, experienced a 60 percent drop in homicides between 2011 and 2012. This drop is significant considering there were 3,100 drug-related homicides in Juarez in 2010. Over the course of several years, roughly 177 PSCs were hired in Ciudad Juarez for protection services. This added thousands of armed guards on the streets, so much so that they outnumbered the police almost 9 to 1.

However, there is a serious blind spot in these statistics. A majority of the PSCs are hired to patrol key business centers in the city. Criminal activity may have lessened in these areas, but drug-related executions, extortion, and kidnappings occur frequently in the impoverished parts of the city. Furthermore, the homicide drop does not consider the likely number of unreported killings.

While visiting some distant ruins in Peru, I noticed that the nearby town was patrolled not by police officers, but by PSC personnel. These guards were equipped with body armor, handguns, handcuffs, and steel batons. At first I thought they were police, but their clothing was marked SS (Security Services).  I observed similar circumstances in busier city centers. Though I saw police officers, they were often directing traffic instead of patrolling the streets.

 However, the most interesting case I found was on my return trip. Before I could wait at my gate in San Salvador (I had already cleared customs and security in Lima), all passengers had to pass an additional security checkpoint. Instead of airport security, or even the police for that matter, my carry-on luggage was searched for contraband by a PSC called Global Legions. Usually, transportation security is performed by government employees (police, military, TSA, etc.).

My paper acknowledged the popularity of PSCs providing armed personnel, but recognized cases of abuse and corruption. Some companies even cover for criminal activity. Of course, such activity is not representative of the majority of PSCs, but accountability is important for clients; regardless of what service is provided.