Monday, February 15, 2016

Venezuela: A Security Overview

Originally Published on 29 December 2015

Summary: Venezuela, by most international security standards, is considered a high- risk destination for business travel. Violent crime including kidnapping, armed robbery, and murder by street gangs and organized crime groups remain the largest threats to physical security in Venezuela. Recent reports indicate that the country has one of the highest homicide rates in the world, averaging 90 deaths per 100,000 people in 2015. Ongoing economic and political factors fuel the increasing violence, especially in the capital Caracas.

Economy: Venezuela’s economy is a key factor to the country’s rising crime rates. Venezuela is largely dependent on oil revenues from its national oil company. The lack of diversification has strained its economy in recent years, with the government often placing the blame on the private sector and Western capitalism. Additionally, the country’s poverty rate increased to over 30% in 2014. Violent crime is most active in poverty-stricken areas, or “barrios,” but many criminal groups operate outside of those areas. Foreigners have been targeted by violent criminal activity for their perceived wealth, most notably in 2014 when the home of a U.S. diplomat was robbed by armed gunmen while the occupants were forcefully restrained.

Government: The political situation also factors into Venezuela’s violence and unrest. Protestors and police violently clashed throughout much of 2013-2015 after the ruling party arrested opposition party leaders, and when the government faced shortages of essential products such as toilet paper. In December 2015, President Nicolas Maduro’s United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) lost the majority seating in parliament to the opposition party, the Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD). Many street gangs form pro-PSUV militias, and attempt to intimidate voters by attacking polling centers during various local and national elections. Furthermore, many Venezuelan police forces are poorly equipped to tackle crime and are often accused of corruption.

Pro-PSUV militia intimidating citizens weeks before parliamentary elections (via Twitter Henrique Capriles)  

Final Assessment: Unrest and violence will likely remain high in Venezuela throughout 2016. The recent parliamentary win by the MUD promises to address economic issues, but many supporters of the PSUV, including President Maduro, are likely to oppose reform policies and fuel further unrest. International businesses operating in Venezuela are unlikely to be targeted specifically by violent crime, but Venezuela remains a high-risk destination nevertheless.  

Thursday, February 11, 2016

The Private Sector, Turkey, and the Russia Factor

Originally Published on 5 December 2015

On 24 November, a Russian warplane was shot down by Turkish fighter jets along the Turkish-Syrian border, exasperating tensions between Russia and Turkey. Turkish officials claim the plane had failed to respond to multiple warnings, while Russia claims their plane never crossed the Turkish border. In retaliation, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned of "serious consequences" and subsequently called for economic sanction on Turkey. Turkish airstrikes against Islamic State (IS) and Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) militants in Syria further complicate the security situation along the southeastern border. Though Russian sanctions add pressure to the already difficult situation, Russian military action against Turkey remains highly unlikely.

Immediately following the 24 November incident, Russia increased its air defense network on both land and sea in northwest Syria. The movement of advanced air defense assets provide Russia with a strategic deterrent to anyone threatening Russian aircraft. However, President Putin clarified in a speech on 4 December that he does not plan "engage in military saber-rattling [with Turkey]" and reiterated Russia's commitment to fighting terrorism. Additionally, Turkey's status as a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) remains a large deterrent for any Russian military spillover into Turkey. As a member, Turkey would be able to call for military assistance from other members such as the US, UK, and France in the event of a Russian attack. On 28 November, Russia released a list of economic sanctions against Turkey. The sanctions included a halt on certain agricultural imports from Turkey, as well as a ban on chartered flights between both countries. Additionally, the sanctions prohibited Russian employers from hiring Turkish nationals starting in 2016 unless they were employed before 31 December 2015. Russia cancelled visa-free travel for Turkish citizens starting 1 January 2016. Furthermore, Russia announced on 3 December that it was suspending all meetings with Turkey for the creation of the $16 billion Turkish Stream gas pipeline. Turkey is Russia's second largest importer of gas.

While Russian sanctions against Turkey further complicate regional dynamics, the impact to many businesses will likely be limited to travel disruptions caused by new visa requirements and possible flight traffic modifications. Russian military action spilling over into Turkey remains highly unlikely due to Turkey's NATO membership. Meanwhile, sporadic acts of violence, either by IS or PKK militants, remain more likely due to ongoing Turkish air strikes against militant groups in Syria. Businesses operating in southern Turkey are unlikely to be targeted directly by violence in the region.